Differential Effects of U.S. Trade Policy Transitions on Korean Battery Supply Chain Geopolitics: A Cross-Policy Analysis of Section 232/301 Tariffs and IRA Localization Requirements (2018-2025)
Differential Effects of U.S. Trade Policy Transitions on Korean Battery Supply Chain Geopolitics: A Cross-Policy Analysis of Section 232/301 Tariffs and IRA Localization Requirements (2018-2025)
정재엽(남서울대학교)
26권 6호, 31~46쪽
초록
Purpose : This study analyzes how sequential U.S. trade and industrial policies—Trump‐era Section 232/301 tariffs and Biden‐era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) localization and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) provisions—have differentially affected the geopolitics of Korean battery supply chains relative to a Japanese benchmark. Research design, data, methodology : The paper develops a “policy‐driven dependence realignment” framework that integrates Hirschman’s power–dependence view with resource dependence theory and transaction cost economics, and tests it using firm‐level panel data for 2018– 2025 on Korean (LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI) and Japanese (Panasonic) battery manufacturers. It constructs continuous measures of tariff and IRA exposure and applies intensity‐based difference‐in‐differences models, event‐study specifications, and trade‐network analysis to track changes in sourcing structures and North American production capacity. Results : The results show that higher exposure to U.S. tariffs and IRA provisions is associated with larger reductions in China‐linked sourcing, greater shifts toward FTA‐partner and North American suppliers, and stronger North American capacity expansion for Korean firms than for the Japanese comparator, with the interaction of tariff and IRA intensities producing more‐than‐additive effects. Trade‐network metrics confirm that these firm‐level adjustments correspond to Korea’s movement from China‐centric trade clusters toward a North America– and ally‐centered module. Conclusions : The findings indicate that Trump‐era tariffs and Biden‐era IRA measures function as a sequential policy regime that reorients supply‐chain dependence and accelerates friend‐shoring in EV battery value chains, with heterogeneous trade‐policy sensitivity among allied suppliers. This underscores the importance for policymakers of considering the design and sequencing of trade and climate‐industrial policies, and for firms of pursuing early diversification and strategic alignment with evolving U.S. content and localization requirements.
Abstract
Purpose : This study analyzes how sequential U.S. trade and industrial policies—Trump‐era Section 232/301 tariffs and Biden‐era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) localization and Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) provisions—have differentially affected the geopolitics of Korean battery supply chains relative to a Japanese benchmark. Research design, data, methodology : The paper develops a “policy‐driven dependence realignment” framework that integrates Hirschman’s power–dependence view with resource dependence theory and transaction cost economics, and tests it using firm‐level panel data for 2018– 2025 on Korean (LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI) and Japanese (Panasonic) battery manufacturers. It constructs continuous measures of tariff and IRA exposure and applies intensity‐based difference‐in‐differences models, event‐study specifications, and trade‐network analysis to track changes in sourcing structures and North American production capacity. Results : The results show that higher exposure to U.S. tariffs and IRA provisions is associated with larger reductions in China‐linked sourcing, greater shifts toward FTA‐partner and North American suppliers, and stronger North American capacity expansion for Korean firms than for the Japanese comparator, with the interaction of tariff and IRA intensities producing more‐than‐additive effects. Trade‐network metrics confirm that these firm‐level adjustments correspond to Korea’s movement from China‐centric trade clusters toward a North America– and ally‐centered module. Conclusions : The findings indicate that Trump‐era tariffs and Biden‐era IRA measures function as a sequential policy regime that reorients supply‐chain dependence and accelerates friend‐shoring in EV battery value chains, with heterogeneous trade‐policy sensitivity among allied suppliers. This underscores the importance for policymakers of considering the design and sequencing of trade and climate‐industrial policies, and for firms of pursuing early diversification and strategic alignment with evolving U.S. content and localization requirements.
- 발행기관:
- 한국무역보험학회
- 분류:
- 무역보험및서비스무역