탄소국경조정제도(CBAM)에 대한 한국기업의 경제적 효과 분석

[Purpose]The European Union is moving forward with the full－scale introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage and achieve its climate goals. Although this mechanism is expected to have a significant impact on the business environment of Korea’s export－dependent industries, related research remains insufficient. This study aims to provide an ex－ante estimation of the potential economic effects of the CBAM, scheduled to take effect in January 2026, on Korean companies. [Methodology]A scenario analysis was conducted based on projected carbon credit prices in 2030—when full implementation is expected—taking into account the scope of direct emissions, Korea’s low－carbon policies, and the deployment of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) strategies. [Findings]The analysis shows that the EU CBAM may impose a financial burden of approximately KRW 1 trillion on Korean companies, even when only exports to the EU are considered. Moreover, domestic low－carbon policies and CCUS adoption did not significantly mitigate this burden. [Implications]The findings suggest that the CBAM, as a historically unprecedented climate－trade policy, could impose substantial financial pressure on Korean firms. Accordingly, proactive government measures such as tax incentives and financial support are urgently required, alongside corporate－level strategic adjustments. By providing empirical estimates, this study contributes to clarifying the economic implications of CBAM and offers practical insights for policymakers and businesses.