부동산세제 개혁 기대가 주민의 소비 의지에 미치는 영향: 주택 계정 현저성의 매개 효과를 중심으로

This study investigates the impact of real estate tax reform expectations on residents' consumption willingness and its underlying psychological mechanism through the lens of mental accounting theory. The research targets a sample of urban homeowners in China, who possess direct financial sensitivity to such policy changes. A stratified random sampling method was employed, categorizing cities by their level of economic development, with data collected via an online survey platform. Statistical analyses included reliability tests (Cronbach's α), exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses (EFA/CFA), path analysis using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), and bootstrapping for mediation effect testing. Valid survey data from 400 residents reveal that real estate tax reform expectations not only directly suppress consumption willingness but also exert an indirect negative effect by heightening the "salience of the housing account." This finding fully elucidates the mediating transmission pathway of "policy signal → psychological cognition → behavioral decision." The findings emphasize the critical importance of proactive expectation management in the policymaking process and provide empirical support for designing equitable tax reforms that minimize adverse shocks to household consumption.