국민연금의 투자전략은 기업의 재무성과를 예측하는가?: 장기성과와 미래이익반응계수에 대한 분석

This study empirically investigates how the strategic equity investments by Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS), the nation’s largest institutional investor, influence firms’ long-term financial performance and the Future Earnings Response Coefficient (FERC). The NPS targets companies expected to demonstrate superior long-term financial outcomes and predictable future earnings, leveraging its substantial capital resources and analytical expertise. As such, its investment decisions naturally serve as strong, positive signals of corporate value to market participants. However, prior research has not thoroughly examined the specific signaling implications of NPS shareholdings within the context of market information environments and corporate valuation processes. This study addresses this gap by comparing Korean listed firms with NPS ownership of 5% or more against those without. Empirical results show firms strategically held by the NPS exhibit significantly better long-term financial performance and higher FERC compared to non-NPS invested firms. The findings suggest that NPS effectively selects firms poised for strong future performance and that its investments inherently convey credible, positive information to market participants. Additionally, strategic investments by the NPS may enhance overall capital market efficiency by improving disclosure quality and reducing information asymmetry. This research provides practical implications not only for policymakers responsible for capital market stability and corporate governance but also for investors seeking reliable indicators of future firm performance.