퇴직연금제도는 진화하는가? 국내상장기업의 퇴직연금제도 선택과 유지 요인에 관한 실증분석

This study examined how the determinants of choosing and retaining pension schemes, now a major source of old-age income, have changed over time and across different economic environments. The analysis considers the demographic and financial characteristics, policy variables, relationships with financial institutions, investment conditions, and the decision-making authority of firms and employees. This study examined firm-level data from 2005 to 2022 using panel multinomial and panel binary logistic regression models that incorporate interaction and period effects. In the choice stage, higher average wages, longer tenure, and higher leverage reduce the likelihood of choosing a defined contribution (DC) scheme, whereas firm age and relationships with financial institutions increase the likelihood of choosing a hybrid scheme. Insurance companies focused on DB scheme, while securities firms focused on DC scheme, collectively driving the adoption of hybrid schemes that combine both systems. In the retention stage, the average wages, firm age, and the number of employees strengthen the retention of hybrid schemes, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, leverage, union presence, and investment conditions promote switching to alternative schemes. As period effects amplify the influence of investment conditions and real estate returns, the decision-making authority of financially knowledgeable employees emerges as a key determinant of scheme retention. Over time, the prevalence of DC and hybrid schemes gradually increases, triggering a structural decline in defined benefit (DB) schemes. These findings confirm that pension schemes continue to evolve institutionally, adapting to changes in the economic environment, policy landscape, and the expansion of employee rights.