양육지원·고용보험 행정자료 결합을 활용한 가구의 자녀 출산 영향요인 분석

The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis of the factors influencing the number of children in households and their decision to have additional births, with the aim of proposing effective policies to address the low birth rate crisis. Specifically, the study examines how the employment characteristics of fathers and mothers, the use of related policies, and regional factors(Seoul metropolitan area versus non-metropolitan areas) affect household fertility patterns. For the analysis, the study utilized anonymized linked data constructed at the household level by combining the Childcare Support Database(birth cohorts from 2019 to 2023) from the Korea Social Security Information Service and the Parental Employment Insurance Database(from 2018 to the first half of 2024) from the Korea Employment Information Service, covering all households with childbirths nationwide. The results indicate that employment stability for both fathers and mothers serves as a key determinant of childbirth decisions, although the effect of occupational categories on fertility varies by gender. Among family-support policies, childbirth and work–family balance benefits had a significant positive effect on the number of births, while the impact of childcare allowances and local government birth subsidies differed between metropolitan and non‑metropolitan regions. These findings suggest that overcoming the current low‑birth trend requires more than cash benefits; it is crucial to establish institutional conditions that ensure both parents enjoy stable employment and real opportunities to reconcile work and family responsibilities before and after childbirth.