전세보증금 반환보증 제도 변화가 주택 임대차 시장 구조에 미친 영향: 서울시 임대차 실거래 자료를 중심으로

This study empirically examines the impact of the 2023 tightening of eligibility requirements for the Jeonse Deposit Return Guarantee system on the contractual structure of Seoul’s housing rental market. Using 3,099,299 rental transaction records covering all housing types in Seoul from July 2020 to June 2025, the analysis employs logistic regression and difference-in-differences logistic regression to estimate both average policy effects and heterogeneous impacts across housing types and rent levels. The results show a significant increase in the prevalence of monthly rent contracts following the policy change, indicating a structural shift away from the Jeonse-centered system. However, this transition was uneven: the probability of selecting monthly rent rose sharply in non-apartment housing and in low- to mid-priced rental segments. These findings suggest that while the tightening of the Jeonse Deposit Return Guarantee system advanced objectives of risk management and curbing institutional misuse, it also induced contract restructuring from Jeonse to monthly rent in market segments characterized by greater uncertainty in deposit recovery. Overall, these results highlight the importance of considering heterogeneous market responses across housing types and rent levels when designing and adjusting rental policy frameworks.