The Structural Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade Dispute and China’s Institutional Responses

Since 2018, the U.S.-China trade dispute has become an important structural turning point in the process of globalization. Originating from tariff frictions, the dispute has gradually evolved into a systemic competition encompassing technology, investment, finance, and institutional rules, exerting profound impacts on China’s economic structural adjustment and the transformation of its development model. Based on the theories of comparative advantage, global value chains, and trade protectionism, this study constructs an analytical framework and, drawing on relevant statistical data from 2018 to 2025, systematically analyzes the evolutionary characteristics, structural impacts, and China’s policy response paths in the context of the U.S.-China trade dispute. The findings show that the dispute demonstrates clear tendencies toward protraction and institutionalization, with the focus of conflict extending from traditional trade in goods to high-technology sectors and rule-based competition; in the short term, it has exerted pressure on the scale of foreign trade and the stability of industrial chains, while in the medium to long term it has accelerated the diversification of foreign trade, industrial upgrading, and technological innovation. By combining macroeconomic regulation, industrial policy, and international cooperation, China has gradually established a development pattern in which domestic circulation serves as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforce each other. Overall, the U.S.-China trade dispute constitutes not only an external constraint but also a structural opportunity for China to advance high-quality development and enhance economic resilience. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the evolution of the international economic competition landscape in the context of global value chain restructuring and provides theoretical reference for China’s opening-up strategy and participation in global economic governance.