한국 태양광 에너지 공급사슬의 구조적 리스크와 관리 우선순위:FGI와 L-I-C 지수에 기반한 분석

High penetration of renewable energy is a key pillar of Korea’s strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. While solar photovoltaic (PV) power has become one of the most competitive generation technologies in terms of levelized cost, recent disruptions in global supply chains and domestic grid constraints have raised new concerns about the stability and bankability of renewable energy projects. This study aims to map the risk landscape of Korea’s renewable energy supply chain, focusing on the solar PV segment, and to derive actor-specific management priorities that can enhance overall system resilience. Adopting a supply chain risk management (SCRM) perspective, the study follows the ISO 31000:2018 process of risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment. Based on a systematic review of policy, market, and supply chain issues, we developed an initial risk register and an analytical framework built around the likelihood-impact-controllability (L-I-C) triad. Empirically, we combine qualitative and quantitative methods through focus group interviews (FGIs) and Delphi-based expert rating (Modified Delphi) with 18 experts representing the full solar PV value chain, from upstream raw materials and wafers through manufacturing and EPC to grid, O&M, corporate off-takers, and finance. FGI transcripts were coded into ten representative risk factors (R1-R10). For each factor, experts in each group assessed L, I, and C on a five point scale; controllability was reverse-transformed (6-C) so that lower controllability translated into higher risk. A priority index was computed, with the top 20% of items labeled Critical and the next 30% High. This reverse-transformation enables policy-, regulation-, and grid-related risks―often characterized by limited managerial leverage―to be reflected within the same-scale heuristic index without introducing ad hoc category weights. The resulting matrices were cross-checked against REC price volatility, PPA spreads, curtailment incidents, and key equipment lead times. findings reveal three main clusters of structural risk. First, upstream supply-base concentration in polysilicon, ingot, and wafer manufacturing―dominated by Chinese producers―exposes projects to exchange rate changes, customs and PCF regulation, and volatile silver/copper prices and trade measures, all of which are rated Critical by upstream actors. Second, power equipment and O&M bottlenecks―notably long and uncertain inverter/transformer lead times, limited domestic capacity, and weak spare parts strategies―constrain grid connection, COD, and long term cash flows, receiving Critical priority for manufacturers and High for downstream groups. Third, market and regulatory signal volatility around RECs, PPAs, and grid access―manifested in connection delays, reinforcement cost sharing rules, lack of curtailment compensation, and unstable REC/PPA prices―is classified as Critical by most downstream stakeholders. Within the L-I-C framework, these risks combine high likelihood and high impact with low controllability, forming the top priority risk portfolio. Based on these results, the study proposes integrated policy, industry, financial, and demand side strategies: strengthening grid and flexibility investment, improving transparency in REC/PPA pricing and curtailment compensation, diversifying and partially localizing upstream procurement, and broadening procurement portfolios for corporate off takers. By translating global debates on solar PV supply chain concentration and policy risk into a Korean project level risk map and linking FGI insights to a structured L-I-C priority index, the framework helps decision makers design actor specific mitigation portfolios and offers a foundation for extending the analysis to other renewables using SCOR based mapping or simulation models.