주택 가격이 미혼율과 이혼율에 미치는 영향_ 코로나19 팬데믹 및 학력의 조절 효과

As China’s real estate market experiences sustained price surges, housing costs have evolved from a mere economic metric into a profound determinant of demographic behavior. This study investigates the direct impact of housing prices on the unmarried and divorce rates across the country. Going beyond simple linear relationships, the research explores a dual-moderating mechanism: the external macroeconomic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the internal structural factor of educational level. A key focus is placed on gender heterogeneity to uncover how these complex dynamics affect men and women differently in the marriage market. Utilizing a fixed-effects panel regression model on data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning 2013 to 2022, the empirical analysis systematically compares effects across total, male, and female populations. The findings reveal that rising housing prices significantly increase the unmarried rate, acting as a formidable economic “entry barrier” to marriage. Notably, this effect is substantially stronger for men than for women. This gender asymmetry reflects the disproportionate burden of traditional societal expectations, where the responsibility of homeownership heavily falls on men, effectively delaying or excluding many from marital opportunities in a high-asset-value environment. Conversely, the study challenges the conventional economic stress hypothesis regarding marriage dissolution. The data demonstrates that higher housing prices significantly decrease the divorce rate. This points to an overwhelming “asset effect”—a “golden handcuffs” phenomenon where the severe financial risks and potential losses associated with property division force couples to maintain their marriages despite potential distress. Furthermore, the dual-moderating analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic negatively adjusted the relationship between housing prices and the unmarried rate. Meanwhile, a higher educational level buffered the economic pressure on unmarried rates (particularly for men) and amplified the divorce-suppressing asset effect. Ultimately, this research extends the literature on family economics by illuminating the gender-asymmetric impacts of housing prices and the intricate mechanisms driving marital decisions. The findings underscore the urgent need for policymakers to provide targeted housing support to lower the economic barriers for young adults. Simultaneously, it highlights the necessity of establishing robust legal and social safety nets for vulnerable individuals who may be constrained by the economic bindings of marriage during periods of macroeconomic volatility.