Factors Influencing the Occurrence and Damage Scale of Urban Floods

This study statistically examined the occurrence characteristics and damage scale of urban flood disasters driven by climate change by analyzing disaster recovery payment data from Incheon Metropolitan City. A logistic regression model, with flood occurrence as the dependent variable, and a multiple linear regression model, with disaster recovery expenditures as the dependent variable, were applied to identify the variables that significantly influence flood occurrence and the magnitude of resulting damages. The empirical results indicate that flood occurrence is primarily shaped by physical factors—including elevation (DEM), slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), and proximity to historically inundated areas—demonstrating the spatial configuration of hydrological vulnerability. In contrast, the scale of economic damage is intensified when physical exposure coexists with social vulnerability, particularly shorter distances from deteriorated residential districts and a higher concentration of aged houses. These findings reveal a compound vulnerability structure, wherein the interaction between physical risk and socio-spatial vulnerability amplifies overall disaster impacts. The results highlight the necessity of an integrated climate adaptation strategy that simultaneously addresses both physical risk reduction through structural interventions and social adaptation measures focused on protecting vulnerable populations and improving residential environments.